Global Markets: Lies, and Damn Lies

The Internation Space Station with the limb of Earth as Backdrop. Breath-taking.  (Second brightest object in the Night-time sky after Moon).
(click image to enlarge)

Market Comment:  I continue to own April Puts; strikes at Nifty 3000, 2800, 2600 and 2500....this rally is complete nonsense....but, I am not naked short because when there is malfeasance by official bodies, better to limit your risks....SO I OWN PUTS.

I am tired of being negative...but the continued disaster known as "official policy response" to the economic meltdown is reinforcing the negativity.

The G-20 is coming....yawn....a boondogle and a security risk for Officials..nothing more.

Citi and Bank of America etc...talked of higher profits this year..so far...not so in March 2009...turns out Jan and Feb 2009 were better because of special payments by AIG under CDS contracts...one time payments at tax payer expense...a big lie...traders and investors went for it.  US Banks Bait and Switch

There is the joke called the US Presidency; enough said. Krugman says the plans to solve the financial system crisis are so bad "he is filled with Despair".

 Articles to Read and Ponder while you own Puts, sit back and relax:

India Funds witness Outflows

The Quiet Coup

US:  Plans perfect, no back-up Needed...Hahahahahah

World's scariest Emerging Market:  USA

Read more...

Humour...sometimes more accurate than editorials

Market Comment:..Expect continued sideways action...volatility to increase as the week progresses....increased risk of break to the downside by end of week.

Last Tuesday, as President Obama got off the helicopter in front of the White House, he was carrying a baby piglet under each arm.

The squared away Marine guard snaps to attention, Salutes and says:

"Nice pigs, sir."

The President replies:

"These are not pigs...these are authentic Arkansas Razorback Hogs. I got one for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and I got one for Speaker of The House Nancy Pelosi."

The squared away Marine again snaps to attention, Salutes and says,

"Excellent trade, sir."

Congress/Obama shocked at AIG bonuses:  A distraction while they loot

  

Obama is concerned about the bonuses...the bailout is 1000 times bigger..no problems there:

In the US of A, you no longer need the mask and gun; bankruptcy, fraud and incompetence will do:

According to Congress, AIG now stands for:  Arrogance, Incompetence and Greed...what are the kids learning:

Finally a graphic about the guy who would not accept anything until Citibank was profitable, but pocketed $10.8 million anyway:

What does arrogance, incompetence and greed lead to:  well an Economic Tsunami which is only now hitting American Shores and will get bigger as 2009 progresses:

Read more...

India: Neighborhood Policy

Despite India's success in Economic development there has been little impact on our neighbors. India's budget for military expenditure, Education, Infrastructure development and lobbying for political influence have all increased manifold, yet our neighbors are unmoved in their behavior.

Pakistan is an unmitigated disaster by all measures; yet it continues to behave as a regional power when the reality is that it cannot even control its own territory. Nepal is a disaster, its main income source is Tourism and with its constant violent clashes this industry has gone for a six;yet it continues to irk and irritate the giant at its border.  Bangladesh is a disaster and yet it continues to irritate India with its illegal migrations and providing sanctuary to terrorists.  All of these countries would benefit enormously by creating friendship with India on the basis of economic development and security...yet they defy all common sense by continuing militant agitation which is costing them generation after lost generation.

These neighbors of India need to think differently; a new paradigm is required.  The blueprint these countries should use is the relationship between Canada and the United States.  Despite a border which stretches over 5500 kilometers (today, completely undefended)...a population difference of 10 to 1..economy size which is 10 to 1...these two are the largest trading partners in the world.   And a Canadian's definition of himself is:  I am not American..that is enough.   And a proportion of Americans still believe Canadians live in Igloos...

And then there is the country to our North, China. What is the basis of the friendship between China and Pakistan? Clearly, the friendship has not led Pakistan along a path to development let alone enlightenment...one can understand Pakistan wanting to make friends with a giant neighbor but why would China want to be friends with a country which can only beg and provide little else...in the last three months alone we have seen the President of Pakistan go begging for money to the IMF, Saudi Arabia, USA and China...

Pakistan has only one potential friend in the world...and that is India because we are people of the same soil...everyone else will focus on the opportunity to exploit a stupid people with visions of grandeur.  In our case, a emotional bond exists...

It is now clear the Taliban, moderate or extremists, will gain more say in Pakistan. This is a reality which all nations, including India have taken as given. What should India's response be to this development?

Let us first look at the ambient environment today..a sea change has occurred..

1. While Kashmir continues to be a sore point between India and Pakistan, it has diminished substantially because of the success of elections and climb down of the Hurriyat.
2. Furthermore, the developed world economies are in contraction..the effect is being felt in all export-oriented economies...notably China and most of Asia. India is less effected because export forms a smaller part of GDP...but our growth is fueled by capital inflows which depends on world wide prosperity and subsequent search for higher yielding investments.

So India could use a carrot and stick approach towards China..while China has been using a stick/stick approach...

The Stick:

There are substantial Muslim majority regions in Eastern China which are clamoring for rights...It seems to me that India should find ways to encourage Al Qaeda and Taliban to focus away from India, as a battle already won, and focus on China as a battleground to be conquered.

After all, China's dalliance with Pakistan has cost India dearly..it is time that the monster that China has coddled should rise and bite it in the arse.

The Carrot:

Increased access to the fastest growing consumer market in the world and investment opportunities for that huge hoard of foreign currency reserves which need some diversification away from the US dollar Treasuries.

The carrot is a win-win for all in the region...the stick is an India win- China lose proposition.  China may be wise enough to choose the Carrot.

Read more...

India Cricket: IPL out of India (Part 2)

IPL Shift: Congress says no Politics Involved

The decision was taken after state governments of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan told the organisers that it would be difficult to provide security due to the General elections.

One slight problem with this statement:  all of the above mentioned states are ruled by the Congress party...Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Bengal, Himachal Pradesh have no problems hosting the IPL....but they are NOT ruled by Congress.

This is politics and it is rotten..let us hope the Indian polity which is unmoved by performance will be moved by losing its "religion"..and boot these clowns out of office decisively.

Read more...

India Cricket: IPL out of India

In a rude but deserved slap to the Congress-led UPA government, the BCCI today announced that the IPL tournament will be held in either South Africa or England..(South Africa is my bet).  The Congress controlled states Maharashtra and Andra Pradesh refused to give permission because of security concerns...laudable but laughable.

This Congress-led UPA has managed to bring this country to its knees; the richest cricket tournament in history cannot be held in India because of security concerns...this is unimaginable...and the people of India will deliver their verdict at the polls in April and May.  In a country where cricket is religion, the Congress-led UPA is in for carnage at the polls...

In 2010 India is the host country for the Commonwealth Games....this is an event where the number of athletes will be approximately 5000 compared to 200 for the IPL....would you consent to come to India given the debacle which we have just witnessed.

Expect a disaster for the Commonwealth Games of 2010...it would not surprise me if that is also moved out of India as participating countries start voicing their concerns, starting NOW.

My personal view is that the Congress and its boys were holding out for a bigger share of the revenues from IPL...Sharad Pawar decided to show everybody who is BOSS...and he gets my vote.

Read more...