India Markets: Nifty....Consolidation or Break-out?

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Nifty blew through the 30 day moving average at 2795..closing at 2920 yesterday.  On the upside, the chart has a 3055 upside level and 2515 on the downside.  The dotted lines show a 10% band around the 30 day moving average.  I continue to be skeptical of any sharp upside break-outs...there is too much local uncertainty for sustained investment.

I continue to target 2500 as my long term buying levels; base-building will last a few months.  Below is a chart showing a blow up of the recent 90 days.