Indian Stock Market: Volatility Exploding...Sell it

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

The one thing that happens after an explosion in volatility is a crash in volatility...usually that crash is preceded by an event...the event which gave rise to the implied volatility.

I have sold calls on the Nifty at this incredible volatility level..sold 2800 Nifty calls at Rs. 112..volatility of 89%...

Because I am long at an average of Nifty 2766, these are covered calls for my long position. The pay-off for my overall position looks as follows:
Nifty        Nifty       Calls       Net
2400       -366      +112      -254
2500       -266      +112      -154
2600       -166      +112      - 54
2700       - 66       +112      + 46
2800       + 34      +112      +146
2900      +134      +  12      +146
3000      +234       - 88       +146
Exploding volatility is a harbinger...the redemption deadline of November 15 for hedge fund investors has passed...significant redemptions are expected...is this volatility explosion an expression of these notices?

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