India: Neighborhood Policy

Despite India's success in Economic development there has been little impact on our neighbors. India's budget for military expenditure, Education, Infrastructure development and lobbying for political influence have all increased manifold, yet our neighbors are unmoved in their behavior.

Pakistan is an unmitigated disaster by all measures; yet it continues to behave as a regional power when the reality is that it cannot even control its own territory. Nepal is a disaster, its main income source is Tourism and with its constant violent clashes this industry has gone for a six;yet it continues to irk and irritate the giant at its border.  Bangladesh is a disaster and yet it continues to irritate India with its illegal migrations and providing sanctuary to terrorists.  All of these countries would benefit enormously by creating friendship with India on the basis of economic development and security...yet they defy all common sense by continuing militant agitation which is costing them generation after lost generation.

These neighbors of India need to think differently; a new paradigm is required.  The blueprint these countries should use is the relationship between Canada and the United States.  Despite a border which stretches over 5500 kilometers (today, completely undefended)...a population difference of 10 to 1..economy size which is 10 to 1...these two are the largest trading partners in the world.   And a Canadian's definition of himself is:  I am not American..that is enough.   And a proportion of Americans still believe Canadians live in Igloos...

And then there is the country to our North, China. What is the basis of the friendship between China and Pakistan? Clearly, the friendship has not led Pakistan along a path to development let alone enlightenment...one can understand Pakistan wanting to make friends with a giant neighbor but why would China want to be friends with a country which can only beg and provide little else...in the last three months alone we have seen the President of Pakistan go begging for money to the IMF, Saudi Arabia, USA and China...

Pakistan has only one potential friend in the world...and that is India because we are people of the same soil...everyone else will focus on the opportunity to exploit a stupid people with visions of grandeur.  In our case, a emotional bond exists...

It is now clear the Taliban, moderate or extremists, will gain more say in Pakistan. This is a reality which all nations, including India have taken as given. What should India's response be to this development?

Let us first look at the ambient environment today..a sea change has occurred..

1. While Kashmir continues to be a sore point between India and Pakistan, it has diminished substantially because of the success of elections and climb down of the Hurriyat.
2. Furthermore, the developed world economies are in contraction..the effect is being felt in all export-oriented economies...notably China and most of Asia. India is less effected because export forms a smaller part of GDP...but our growth is fueled by capital inflows which depends on world wide prosperity and subsequent search for higher yielding investments.

So India could use a carrot and stick approach towards China..while China has been using a stick/stick approach...

The Stick:

There are substantial Muslim majority regions in Eastern China which are clamoring for rights...It seems to me that India should find ways to encourage Al Qaeda and Taliban to focus away from India, as a battle already won, and focus on China as a battleground to be conquered.

After all, China's dalliance with Pakistan has cost India dearly..it is time that the monster that China has coddled should rise and bite it in the arse.

The Carrot:

Increased access to the fastest growing consumer market in the world and investment opportunities for that huge hoard of foreign currency reserves which need some diversification away from the US dollar Treasuries.

The carrot is a win-win for all in the region...the stick is an India win- China lose proposition.  China may be wise enough to choose the Carrot.

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Terrorism: India and Pakistan bicker

There has been a lot of mail regarding the Mumbai tragedy. In its aftermath, Pakistani blogs have been full of accusations and recriminations. Even those that would question their own government find it easier to focus on India. I have reproduced below my response to a Pakistani blog on the Mumbai terrorist attacks.

Zeeshan

Thank you for posting this article.

First, some things we agree on:

While I am Hindu and you are Muslim; I know the things I stand for you will stand for: a safe environment for my children, good schools, good job, good career prospects in the future...freedom of speech and freedom to follow my path to God..if our governments could provide that then the rest I will leave in the hands of your God and mine.

With respect to tolerance and stupidity here some facts to think over:

You are inaccurate about 9/11 since AlQaeda and Taliban took responsibility for that Act.

It is true that India does not have friendly relations with its neighbors..and a budding power must be able to make friends with its neighbors. This is a failing of my government and must be rectified and the responsibility always lies with the bigger brother.

It is also true that I have a lot of good Pakistani friends...mostly in the middle-east..and most of them would prefer to live in their home-land but feel insecure or there are not enough opportunities.

Pakistan is spending huge amounts of its budget on military expenditures...I know this is supposed to be because of the Indian giant next door...but the fact is Pakistan has attacked India twice militarily...not the other way around.

In 1947, the economy of Pakistan and India was on par. While India spent little on military it spent enormous amounts on education and infrastructure. Today the economy of India is 50 times the size of Pakistan on a per capita basis.

As a result, today the Pakistan military is a match for a country 6 times its population...but the Pakistan economy is having to get hand-outs from the IMF to pay its bills. This is not right and your government is to blame.

In 1948, after partition, 20% of the population of Pakistan was Hindu and 80% Muslim. Today less than 2% is Hindu. In India, the Muslim population was 8% Muslim in 1948, today it is over 13%.
Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world where the Hindu population has declined.

In India, we have Shah Rukh Khan, Aamir Khan, Shabana Azmi, Azim Premji, Hamid Ansari, Abdul Kalam, Pataudi, etc.....all Muslims but they are great and respected for their achievements not because of their religion which is their private affair.

There is little doubt that India has far surpassed Pakistan on the world stage..it is not because the people are smarter or work harder..we are the same people after all...it is because the Pakistan government has not pursued good policies for its people.

The conflict between our countries has to end. I do not care if it is ISI or CIA or AlQaeda or RAW...you have to know that these conflicts are breaking the long term dreams of the Pakistani people.

Do not think that your government is going to follow good policies without your push...they have not done so for 60 years. It is time for the Pakistani people to rise up and wrest their country from the vested interests.

If you agree with my first paragraph then you know the path to friendship. Focus on our agreements...and build on that. The conflicts then melt away. Those that wish to divide us are forcing us to focus on our differences. It is within us to not allow that to happen.

Salam
December 4, 2008 4:02 PM

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