US Markets: Just Volatility or something else?

Sunday, December 07, 2008

On Friday the United states reported that over half a million jobs disappeared in a month!    533,000!!

The Stock Market went up 3.65%.  What?   That's right, the S&P rallied 3.65%.  Now I know that Bond traders are a sorry lot that cheer job losses and bankruptcies...bad news means lower policy rates...lower inflation...HIGHER bond prices.

But the Stock market up on doubfoundingly bad news...I cannot even come up with a rationale, with perfect 20/20,  for this turn of events.   Sell the rumour buy the fact...NOT...the actual nonfarm payroll number of -533,000 is more than four standard deviations away from the mean prediction.

GDP growth for the fourth quarter in the United States ranges from minus 3% to minus 6%.  That's right; MINUS SIX PERCENT....and they bought the stock market.

The latest quarter results suggest S&P earnings will be $ a multiple of 12 that gives a fair value level of 600....which is 30% lower than Friday's level...

Everyone knows this...but on Friday, after confirmation that the depth of the unfolding economic contraction can no longer be denied....they BOUGHT the stock market.

So, what am I missing.
If it looks like a:

If it talks like a:
Can it be:
I think Not...This stock market has come unhinged...bear trap rally coming up...served warm, juicy and tantalising....and it will all end in :

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