India Markets: Finally, will the Government Act?

Thursday, December 04, 2008

It seems the Administration in India has finally put together the picture and is ready to act on the economic front.

Three pronged fiscal package.
Government readies Rs 75,000 cr booster

Too much is better than too little... while the monetary side suggestion of cutting rates by 150 to 200 basis points is appropriate with other liquidity boosting measures, the governments fiscal stimulus is insufficient.  We are in an economic environment where there are No takers for Loans.

China and India and Russia and Brazil and other countries that are on the cusp of development will not stop building...their populations demand it...and are willing to work hard to attain a standard of living of the developed world.  The demand side is only temporarily depressed in these countries.

Globally, we are seeing generational lows in commodity prices....generational highs in asset destruction and bankruptcies.  Know-how is available cheap as unemployment in the developed world gallops to generational highs.  But we cannot allow India inc to be run by remote control from Singapore and Dubai.

In this optimum environment, India should aim for a fiscal stimulus of at least 5% of GDP or Rs 250,000 crores.  This is the time to bet on our people.
57 million US jobs are off-shoreable.
India Over-qualified and Under-leveraged.

India is faced with the opportunity of a lifetime during these depressed times;  a successful management of this crisis would deliver to the world a second engine of growth...the Indian consumer.  And the whole world needs another engine or two.

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