Global: USA and China, the two poles?

Saturday, November 08, 2008

So much talk about the severity of this financial crisis and potential duration focuses on US and China.  If the near term future of the global economy is tied to these two poles then we are going nowhere fast.  Our public officials in India continue to try and paint a rosy picture.  I think the following quote sums up my view:

Former (and perhaps future) Treasury Secretary Summers has argued that “You can usually date the end of the crisis to the first moment when a public official makes a forecast that proves too pessimistic.” I don’t think we are there yet. The IMF’s latest forecast still strikes me as rather optimistic. I increasingly suspect that one indicator that the financial crisis has truly turned a corner will come when the Fed’s balance sheet starts to shrink …
This quote is taken from the excellent post Central bank reserve managers still are running away from risk  and echoes my post  Central banks pushing on a string.

With respect to China, the debate is getting heated up.  Projections are all pointing down as in the article How severe a slump in China?    See my post:  China, India: Hard times Ahead

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