Post Deepawali: Muhurrat firecracker will fizzle out

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The market went up like a rocket during Muhurrat trading...reminded me of all the rockets and firecrackers going up, bursting in the sky and bringing cheer all around. For a few hours we were looking up, forgetting all the troubles around us.

The firecrackers spend themselves, and the sounds and lights ended. All was quiet. And daily life imposed itself on the scene.

So it will be with the stock market and the economy. Currently there is some positive news, but crises are never good news for markets:

  • IMF has agreed on $14.5 billion bail-out for Hungary
  • Market expects US Fed to cut by 75bps, so the dollar sold-off, temporary reprieve for emerging market currencies
  • Expectations are that Japan will cut rates..more relief
I continue to stay out of the markets. If you have positions then use the current counter-rally to lighten those positions...The Nifty may climb to 3000, although I doubt this, because this is a counter-trend rally.

There will be a climax selling before the bottom is reached. There will be time to get into the market. Now is not the time.

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