India: Stock Market

Friday, October 24, 2008

I have been reading and talking about everything but the stock market and it puzzled me that other things were more interesting.

Then I read the following from Kevin Depew at Minyanville and it made sense.

Ye gods, that's a brutally long digression just to avoid having to talk about the stock market. But there's not much fun in financial markets these days, and every time I get five spare minutes to sit down and try and figure out the races being run this weekend some new weird disaster happens to cause stock to gyrate like a crippled wild boar.

The reality we have to accept is that stocks are being dominated by two forces that the vast majority of traders and investors can't easily see: 1) increasingly wide coprorate bond spreads, and 2) forced selling. I'm a betting man, and my bet is we need to see a move below the recent intraday low of 839 on the S&P 500 to cause the kind of eye-scratching fear that accompanies significant lows. At that point, we can begin to think about fading the consensus opinion that everything is permanently doomed.

This comment is applicable to India as well. We would have to see something around 2550 on Nifty for the 'permanently doomed' and 'eye-scratching fear' to enter trader and investor psychology. Having a level in mind always puts the market in perspective for, if the market would only behave.

Anand drew game seven, leads 5-2 and needs 1.5 pts from 5 games to retain the World Chess Championship.

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