India: Buy - In levels reached

Saturday, October 25, 2008

My buy levels were reached on Friday...but I did not pull the trigger. Why? Here are Friday's closing levels:

Sensex 8,701 (1,071) or (11.0%)
Nifty    2,584    (359) or (12.2%)

The long term chart with moving averages is showing a blow-off type decline...when will it subside and consolidate...I continue to wait for a significant liquidity event...certainly the market is anticipating something ...

I do not try to pick bottoms for investing nor do I pick tops for selling. I am willing to sacrifice the first 10+% to the Gods as an offering and pocket the remaining move either side, up or down.

We have a long way up in India post this crisis...the underlying strengths have not changed. Let us review:
  1. A large, educated, skilled workforce...over 100 million with masters degree or better
  2. Cost advantages which will last for atleast another decade
  3. Resource rich in base metals
  4. Middle class at 300 million and growing and demanding better of everything
  5. 60+% of the population is between 18 and 35 years old...large workforce, high savings
  6. Trend - setter in Information technology and Back-office processing
  7. Financial System governance at par with the best
  8. An outstanding judiciary, especially considering the inequities which are being corrected in a country of 1.2 billion people, and has had only 60 years of independence
  9. A culture which enjoys the highest of reputations world-wide through the ambassadorship of its  'vibrant and sucessfull' diaspora
It is true that India has many weaknesses; but in these times it is important to reflect on our strengths.  The slowing economy, plummeting markets, rising job losses will create a mood of depression and despondency.  If you stay in this mood then you will miss the inflection point of change.

It is winter and time to reflect...almost time to plant..the spring is coming...I am waiting for the groundhog, will he or won't he see his shadow...

A very happy festive season to all:  Happy Deepawali

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